The strength in the U.S. dollar may keep Bitcoin and select altcoins under pressure in the short term.
Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are attempting to defend the immediate support levels, indicating that bears sense an opportunity and are looking to take control of the price action.
The short-term price action does not seem to worry the long-term Bitcoin bulls who expect a massive return in the next few years. While speaking at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated her Bitcoin price target of $1 million by 2030.
Meanwhile, telecom billionaire Ricardo Salinas said during the conference that BTC and Bitcoin equities form 60% of his liquid investment portfolio. That is a massive increase from his Bitcoin exposure in 2020, which formed just 10% of his liquid assets.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
While the long-term may be positive, Bitcoin could remain under pressure in the short term due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. The rising rates and the tapering of the balance sheet have boosted the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) to above 100 for the first time since May 2020.
Could Bitcoin break below the critical support levels or will buyers stage a strong recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin plunged to the critical support at $42,594 on April 7 but a positive sign is that bulls held this level. The long tail on April 8’s candlestick suggests that bulls continue to defend the level with vigor.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages have flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($44,314) and the critical overhead resistance at $45,400. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could challenge the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($48,220).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or $45,400, it will suggest that bears are selling on every rise. The bears will then try to pull the pair below the 50-day SMA ($41,789). If they succeed, the decline could extend to the support line of the ascending channel.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) broke below the 20-day EMA ($3,224) on April 6 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls bought the dip and have pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA, indicating strong demand at lower levels.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could again rise to the 200-day SMA ($3,487). A break and close above this resistance will suggest the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then rise to $4,150.
Alternatively, if the bulls fail to drive the price above the 200-day SMA, it will suggest that bears are holding their ground at higher levels. The pair could then oscillate between the 200-day SMA and the 20-day EMA for a few days.
A break and close below $3,100 could open the doors for a possible drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,915).
BNB/USDT
BNB broke and closed below the 20-day EMA ($425) on April 4 but the lower levels attracted strong buying from the bulls. The price rebounded sharply and broke above the overhead resistance at $445 on April 7 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling on rallies.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the possibility of a drop to the 50-day SMA ($399) increases. The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. A break below the 50-day SMA will bring the large range between $350 and $445 into play.
On the other hand, if the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA, the bulls will again attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair toward the 200-day SMA ($468). The pair could then trade between these two moving averages for a few days.
SOL/USDT
The bulls stalled the decline at the 20-day EMA ($114) on April 6 but could not push Solana (SOL) back above the overhead resistance at $122. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be $106. If this level also fails to hold, the SOL/USDT pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($97). Such a move will suggest that the pair may remain stuck in a range between $81 and $122 for a few days.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $122, the bulls will make one more attempt to overcome the barrier at the 200-day SMA ($149).
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) broke and closed below the 50-day SMA ($0.78) on April 6, indicating that bears are making a comeback. The bulls tried to push the price back above the 50-day SMA but the bears are not willing to relent.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.81) has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating an advantage to the sellers. If the price remains below the 50-day SMA, the bears will attempt to extend the decline by pulling the XRP/USDT pair below $0.75. If they do that, the next stop could be $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will try to push the pair to the 200-day SMA ($0.88).
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke and closed below the 20-day EMA ($1.08) on April 6. The bulls bought the dip but are struggling to push the price back above the 20-day EMA.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price fails to break and sustain above the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the ADA/USDT pair below the 50-day SMA ($0.96). If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to the strong support at $0.74.
Alternatively, if the price rises and sustains above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $1.26. Such a move will complete a cup and handle pattern, signaling the start of a possible new uptrend. The pair could first rise to the 200-day SMA ($1.45) and then rally to $1.60.
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token is correcting in an uptrend. The price attempted a rebound off the 20-day EMA ($102) but the bears continue to sell at higher levels. That pulled the price below the 20-day EMA on April 8.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the selling could accelerate and the LUNA/USDT pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($88). The bulls are expected to defend this level but if they fail in their endeavor, the next stop could be $82.
Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The pair will then again attempt to break above the all-time high of $119 and resume the uptrend.
Related: Near Protocol eyes a Terra-like price rally after new $350M funding raise
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) plunged below the 20-day EMA ($89) and the 200-day SMA ($84) on April 6 but the bulls successfully defended the 50-day SMA ($82). This indicates that traders continue to accumulate on dips.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers will now try to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $99. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could open the doors for a possible rally to $117 and next to $127.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the pair could plunge to the strong support at $65. The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
DOT/USDT
After the sharp reversal from $23, Polkadot (DOT) is currently attempting to stay above the 50-day SMA ($19). If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA ($21), a retest of the overhead resistance is likely.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint signal a possible range-bound action in the short term. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and plummets below the 50-day SMA, the selling could intensify and the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $16.
The bulls will have to clear the hurdle at $23 to indicate the start of a potential new uptrend. A close above $23 could clear the path for a possible up-move to the 200-day SMA ($29).
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged sharply from the overhead resistance at $0.17 on April 6 but a positive sign is that the bulls held the support at the 20-day EMA ($0.14).
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA continues to slope up gradually and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating a minor advantage to buyers. The bulls will once again attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above the 200-day SMA ($0.18). If they succeed, the pair could start an up-move to $0.22.
On the contrary, a shallow bounce will suggest weak demand. The bears will then try to sink the price below the moving averages and challenge the strong support at $0.10.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
