$38,000 could be the next stop in a downward move, but equal faith lies in $32,000 being the definitive floor.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw its first major test of $40,000 for several weeks overnight, but what price zones are traders watching next?
Whether long or short-term, the answer for many is simple: The range is still intact.
Bitcoin wobbles after “moment of truth”
On the back of macro pressures, BTC/USD saw a moderate sell-off on Feb. 17, which continued into Friday, with local lows of $40,330 appearing on Bitstamp, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
A bounce took the pair above $41,000, but nerves remain over further challenges to the strength of bulls’ resolve.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
A popular bounce zone in the event of a break below currently lies at $38,000, and as last night’s lows set in, popular Twitter account Credible Crypto reiterated the need to hold that number going forward.
“Moment of truth,” they summarized alongside a forecast chart.
“Lows taken, if our bottom is in at 32k then downside should be limited to the GREEN region below to form a higher low. Again, this is my primary, and I expect we hold this region and continue up to challenge monthly resistance once more.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter
Some were less enthusiastic about that prospect, with popular trader Crypto Ed concerned about even the $40,000 test.
“Hanging on the 40k cliff, feels like a miracle is needed after that (for me) surprising move down yesterday,” he said.
The structure of derivatives markets, meanwhile, reinforces the macro bottom being around $32,000. As noted by analyst Dylan LeClair, bidders entered at that point when it hit in January, providing more than a mere line in the sand for price stability.
“The speculative air in the $BTC derivative market has essentially completely unwound, with spot market bidders taking hold at 33k in early January,” he said in one of a series of tweets about the environment.
Honestly fam, if I had to judge by the weekly chart I would say pack your stuff it’s over but…
yeah… let’s see pic.twitter.com/95Z9cObaS3
— muro – won’t DM you (@MuroCrypto) February 17, 2022
While some were decidedly queazy about longer timeframes, LeClair argued that zooming out, nothing had really changed and that Bitcoin remained on track in terms of its four-year halving cycles.
“Macro environment aside, the bitcoin monetization process continues on. With all the uncertainty, bitcoin is ranging around approximately an order of magnitude higher than it was during the previous cycle. Don’t lose sight of the bigger picture,” he concluded.
True to form, the overnight lows filled a CME Bitcoin futures gap left over from the exit out of the $30,000–$40,000 corridor at the start of the month.
CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
Fidelity analyst: Price debate “mostly noise”
Observing the past year’s highs and lows, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity, called for a refocus of attention to multi-year network growth instead of price analysis.
Related: Bitcoin ‘whales’ and ‘fishes’ pause accumulation as markets weigh March 50bps hike odds
“Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now, bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many, but it’s mostly noise. For Bitcoin, the network is what matters,” he told Twitter followers this week.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter
For Timmer, Bitcoin’s price targets lie in a similar regression curve to Apple’s metamorphosis from the 1990s to today.
The result could be a much slower journey to $1 million and beyond than many hope, but at the same time, the solidity of network fundamentals and adoption should come first.
Bitcoin demand model chart. Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s hash rate and difficulty are already at unprecedented levels.