No sign of a significant shift up or down for BTC price, but volume data hints that the bottom could come in weeks or less.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim recent losses into July 2 as traders prepared for stagnant price action to continue.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
“Downtrend acceleration” still in force
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a limp BTC/USD as it chopped around the $19,000 mark into the weekend.
The Wall Street trading week had finished without surprises, with United States equities practically stagnant — providing little impetus for crypto volatility. The U.S. dollar index, or DXY, fresh from a retest of twenty-year highs, ran out of steam to circle 105 points.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView
Order book data from largest global exchange Binance showed BTC/USD caught between buy and sell liquidity close to spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or added significantly to bids or asks.
BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators
Zooming out, the outlook hardly seemed any more optimistic for bulls.
For popular trading account Altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring performance from Bitcoin which could last much of 2022.
“Its gonna take months to chop around and accumulate once the bottom is found,” it told Twitter followers.
“And the bottom might not even come for another few months from today. Hunker down for a long bear market IMO.”
The sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin had not yet made new macro lows or started to consolidate.
#BTC may still very well be in the “Downtrend Acceleration” phase of its correction
But this phase will precede the “Multi-Month Consolidation” phase
Which will precede the “New Macro Uptrend” phase$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 1, 2022
“Deleverage yourself. Get your Bitcoin into cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at research firm Glassnode added.
Will volume all-time highs echo 2018?
The next week or two could prove to be this cycle’s lows, meanwhile, lending a degree of hope to those concerned that the bottom is still months away.
Related: Price analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB
In a Twitter thread on the day, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that volume denominated in BTC hit all-time highs last month.
“As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate,” he explained.
As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate, and such capitulation creates major bottoms.
This weekly chart includes the aggregated bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).
Volume hit its all time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 2, 2022
In the 2018 bear market, he added, the volume all-time high in fact occurred several weeks before the price bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the site of the next.
Previously, Rekt Capital had argued that buy-side volume had not been strong enough to sustain fresh price upside in the long term, while also highlighting the 2018 volume moves.
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