BTC price breaking out of its established trading range is proving harder than expected.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of recovery from an overnight rout on April 1 after the Ides of March caught up with bulls at the last minute.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin faces “pivotal” moment

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD passing $45,500 on April 1’s Wall Street open.

The pair had dipped to near $44,000 into the March monthly close, the pullback fuelled by a combination of macro factors and actions by large-volume wallets.

European stocks suffered on the day, thanks to Russia threatening to cut off gas supplies while a vote by European Union lawmakers to ban “unhosted” wallets further soured the mood. 

While failing to spark a deeper retracement towards $40,000, the triggers left Bitcoin short of its all-important yearly open at $46,200 at the time of writing. This, in turn, left the door open for a return of the trading range in force since the beginning of 2022 with the yearly open as its ceiling.

“If we are supposed to go down, I think it’ll happen from here,” trader Crypto Ed summarized alongside a chart showing bullish and bearish continuations.

#BTC update from video
If we are supposed to go down, I think it’ll happen from here.

Bullish alternative in blue pic.twitter.com/xfx4euh7RP

— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) April 1, 2022

For popular Twitter account Material Indicators, short timeframes would be telling for the overall market trajectory.

Bitcoin had exited a rising wedge on the weekly chart, but had nonetheless failed to preserve the 50-week moving average (WMA) as support.

“Bitcoin is in a pivotal position,” it wrote on the day.

“BTC bulls lost the 50 WMA, but managed to reclaim the R/S flip above the structure. Volatility resides on either side of the range. Watching for the restests.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

April known not to disappoint

Unlike March, April is a historically successful month for Bitcoin, leaving this year with much to live up to.

Related: Bitcoin ‘dormant’ for 7+ years moved right before BTC price dropped 5%

According to data from on-chain analytics resource Coinglass, BTC/USD has never lost more than 3.46% in April, with maximum gains at 50%.

Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

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