The bullish outlook appears as the Russian central bank imposes stricter capital controls on its citizens, including a ban on using rubles to buy the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by around 30% after topping out at 5.8 million rubles a token on March 9. Nonetheless, the said drop could be an excuse for traders to dump another big stash of the Russian national currency if a classic bullish continuation pattern plays out.
Bitcoin heads towards 11 million rubles
Dubbed the “ascending triangle,” the pattern appears when the price consolidates between a rising lower trendline (support) and a flat upper trendline (resistance). It completes after the price breaks out of the consolidation range in the direction of its previous trend, eyeing levels at length equal to the maximum distance between the triangle’s upper and lower trendline.
BTC’s price against the ruble has been trending inside a similar structure since January 2021, as shown in the chart below. It closed above the triangle’s upper trendline, rising more than 20% to its all-time high of 5.88 million rubles.
BTC/RUB weekly price chart featuring “ascending triangle” setup. Source: TradingView
Nonetheless, BTC corrected to test the range’s resistance as support, a common sight following breakouts as traders seek confirmation of the pattern with more upside.
If this is the case, the likelihood of rebounding and continuing toward 11 million rubles appears high in the future, an almost 140% rise.
Russia’s capital controls
The technical bullish outlook for the BTC/RUB market also comes amid an ongoing exodus from Russian assets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as western nations have collaborated to damage the country’s ties with the global banking system.
As a result, Moscow Exchange has suspended trading from Feb. 28 until further notice. Similarly, shares of Russia-backed companies abroad have suffered, with an MSCI index tracking their exchange-traded funds reporting nearly a 78% outflow since the invasion began on Feb. 24.
Related: Ally or suspect? The war in Ukraine as a stress test for the crypto industry
iShares MSCI Russia ETF weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
As of March 7, the ruble had tumbled by more than 50% year-to-date against the U.S. dollar, its biggest decline since 1998 when Russia defaulted on its debt. The Russian central bank intervened through a sequence of capital control measures, including a ban on foreign currency sales for six months.
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